NASCAR Betting – The Ally 400

It’s been a decade since it was possible to bet on NASCAR while racing in Nashville and over 30 years since middle Tennessee hosted a NASCAR Cup Series, making this weekend’s action at Nashville Superspeedway a novel thrill for fans looking to place a bet .

Events kick off on Friday with the Rackley Roofing 200, followed by the 250 Xfinity Series race on Saturday in the run-up to the main event on Sunday: the 300 laps of the Ally 400 Cup Series race.

It’s been a long and difficult path for Dover Motorsports to draw NASCAR Cup races to the Lebanon, Tennessee track: the company had all but given up hope on the idea, shutting the Superspeedway down after the 2011 season following sluggish attendances.

But with NASCAR becoming more open to the idea of hosting Cup races in smaller venues, the 38,000 capacity Superspeedway is back on the grid and all of our recommended sportsbooks are of course offering markets on the race.

An unpredictable race

NASCAR Betting

Given that it’s been 10 years since NASCAR drivers raced the Superspeedway, bettors may find it hard to rely on track form when looking for favorites to put money on, though a practice session scheduled for Saturday should help inform your decision-making.

That’s not to say that this weekend’s drivers have no experience with the track: Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano have all recorded victories here in the past, albeit in Xfinity Series cars or NASCAR Trucks. 

But as Busch himself admitted last week, it will be hard to predict how the track has aged over time and how modern-day cars will react to the rough-surfaced 1.333-mile oval that is the longest in NASCAR racing.

That means the smart money is looking at drivers’ recent performances to identify race favorites. And if there is one driver who is hot right now, it is the man in the No. 5 Chevrolet, Kyle Larson.

Larson vs the field

Larson +275 has recorded three straight wins (including the All-Star win last week), with three consecutive second-place finishes coming before that, and leads the pack in stage wins and laps led this season. He’s also done well on other rough-surfaced tracks such as Darlington and Dover.

It’s been a triumphant redemption arc for the Californian driver following the controversy and suspension that dogged him during the 2020 season, and a vindication for the team that gave him a second shot, Hendrick Motorsports.

Hendrick can also count on another of the bookies’ favorites for this weekend’s race in Chase Elliot +700. Elliot lies fourth in the NASCAR Cup Series standings and has secured 8 top 5 finishes this season. Only his teammate Larson, with 9, has done better than that.

Bookmakers have Martin Truex Jr. as one of the race favorites at +650 and the 750-horsepower setup NASCAR will use at this weekend’s Speedway race could benefit him, given that he has won 3 races using that setup in 2021.

If you believe the race setup will be a determining factor, you may also want to look at Joey Logano (+1500) as an outside bet: eight of his nine top-10 finishes this season have been using a 750-hp setup and has raced this track before. 

Denny Hamlin (+900) leads the NASCAR Cup Series leaderboard and remains a highly-rated driver. Sceptics will say he has not yet won a race this season; his defenders will point out that he has finished eighth or better in four out of five points races.

Kyle Busch, meanwhile, is the only driver among the bookies’ favorites to have experienced victory at the Nashville Superspeedway. Busch won an Xfinity Series race here in 2009 and followed that up with victory in a NASCAR Truck two years later.

The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion is taking no chances here and will run in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, to get a feel for the track ahead of Sunday’s big Cup Series race. We're looking forward to the race on Sunday!

Motorsport FAQ

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